After my post Why did Labour lose?, I felt it was only fair to ask the same question of the Liberal Democrats. The party went into the election with a clear message on Brexit, a new leader, and some high-profile candidates. Why then did they do so badly? First Past the Post Liberal Democrats have […]
Why did Labour lose?
The first word that comes to mind when thinking of the general election result for Labour is catastrophic. A fall in vote share was bad enough, especially as all the other main parties registered an increase, but to make a net loss of approximately 60 seats is inexcusable for the main opposition party. Even worse, […]
Yet another general election
In a week’s time we will likely know which party is going to be running the country for the next 1-5 years, trying to deal with the intractable problem of sorting Brexit, fixing the economy and keeping the country together. Conservatives Despite getting off to a poor start as Prime Minister, the election forecast looks […]
The next general election
Whatever happens with Brexit, it seems likely – and apologies if you are a political journalist or activist – that we are heading for an early general election, probably later this year. What does that mean for the three main UK parties, two of which are likely to see a change in leader? Conservatives I […]
General election predictions vs results
Well, that was unexpected, though Psychic Paul was slightly more foresightful than in 2015. To recap my predictions were: Conservatives: Double-figure majority: Wrong. Gains in Scotland: Right (net gain of 12). Theresa May remains PM: Right (as of time of writing). Labour: Squeezed in Scotland: Wrong (net gain of 6 seats). Corbyn will fare better […]
General election predictions
Back in 2015 I made some predictions which turned out to be completely off the mark when it came to the general election results. This year I am going to stick my neck out again, but in general terms rather than targeting specific numbers. Conservatives: Double-figure majority but not a landslide. Will make gains in […]
Unadjusted opinion polls
There has been a lot of excitement this week about an unadjusted opinion poll by Ipsos Mori which shows Labour ahead of the Conservatives by 43 points to 40. Given that the Conservatives have been leading the polls since the election was called, with anything up to a 20+ point margin, this has understandably raised […]
Theresa May and the Art of Doing Nothing
Despite having a limited set of policies – and not being particularly tied to any beyond tautologies such as ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – Theresa May has in a short time moved from Home Secretary to Prime Minister, and looks set to continue after 8th June with an increased majority. May has achieved this through a […]
MPs vote for early general election
Following on from yesterday’s shock announcement that the Prime Minister wants to hold an early election, MPs today voted by a margin of 522 to 13 to take the country to the polls in early June. ‘But wait’, I hear you cry, ‘I thought one of the “achievements” of the 2010 coalition was to fix […]
General election results
The results of the polls are all in and, to the amazement of pretty much everyone, Cameron has not only seen off a challenge from Labour but also managed to obtain a majority, albeit a slim one. My predictions were way off the mark, although I can take some consolation in the company I keep […]