The next general election

Whatever happens with Brexit, it seems likely – and apologies if you are a political journalist or activist – that we are heading for an early general election, probably later this year. What does that mean for the three main UK parties, two of which are likely to see a change in leader? Conservatives I […]

General election predictions

Back in 2015 I made some predictions which turned out to be completely off the mark when it came to the general election results. This year I am going to stick my neck out again, but in general terms rather than targeting specific numbers. Conservatives: Double-figure majority but not a landslide. Will make gains in […]

Unadjusted opinion polls

There has been a lot of excitement this week about an unadjusted opinion poll by Ipsos Mori which shows Labour ahead of the Conservatives by 43 points to 40. Given that the Conservatives have been leading the polls since the election was called, with anything up to a 20+ point margin, this has understandably raised […]

General election results

The results of the polls are all in and, to the amazement of pretty much everyone, Cameron has not only seen off a challenge from Labour but also managed to obtain a majority, albeit a slim one. My predictions were way off the mark, although I can take some consolation in the company I keep […]